From the NAHB -- The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the end of January estimated that growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from 2.2% growth in the third quarter, suggesting that the economy now has established a firm footing on the recovery path.

Unfortunately, that’s not the end of the story. For housing, for the extremely high levels of the unemployed and underemployed and for consumers, convalescence from the worst recession in generations will be slow.

Things are getting better, but maybe not fast enough to entirely ease the pain.

If the economy continued growing at a 5.7% rate, that would raise some genuine cause for celebration. Unfortunately, growth of that magnitude at this point is generally considered unsustainable. The economy will continue to move forward over the coming year, but at a relatively modest pace that should at least arouse a feeling of gratitude that we have endured the worst and can now prepare for better times ahead.

Inventory replacement made a major contribution to the fourth quarter growth spurt as businesses scrambled to replenish their supplies. Once those inventories have been rebuilt, the question is how soon they will need to be replaced again.

While cash registers will be seeing more action than they did when the economy was still falling off a cliff, goods won’t be flying off the shelves, so inventory replacement won’t be as potent a force behind growth in the period ahead. At the same time, personal expenditures by consumers in the fourth quarter slowed to a growth rate of 2.0%, down from 2.8% in the third quarter.